Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,427$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,003.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59,003.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,747$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,490.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,490.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,696$ on 2020-06-30

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $314,160$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,656.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(303,656.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,815$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(8.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,692.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,692.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $268,975$ on 2020-06-30

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $249,271$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(7.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,258.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(237,258.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,355$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(9.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,460.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(27,460.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70,540$ on 2020-06-30

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,578$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,568.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,767$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(8.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,762.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,762.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,563$ on 2020-06-30

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,451$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,639.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(93,639.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,333$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(872 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $63,118$ on 2020-06-30

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $202,063$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,110.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(189,110.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,846$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(8.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,847.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,847.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $95,818$ on 2020-06-30

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,483$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,775.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(47,775.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,132$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,011.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,011.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,165$ on 2020-06-30

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,473$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(6.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,066.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,066.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,736$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(378 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $373$ on 2020-06-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malta recovered 94%
Estonia recovered 93%
Italy recovered 86%
Lithuania recovered 79%
Hungary recovered 57%
Belarus recovered 38%
Poland recovered 20%

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(188 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{641.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(641.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-30

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-06-30

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,989$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(655 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,882.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,882.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(27.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(68.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91$ on 2020-06-30

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,817$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(608 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,685.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,685.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(20.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(77.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $224$ on 2020-06-30

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,155$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(988 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,042.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,042.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $585$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(112 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{564.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(564.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $878$ on 2020-06-30